Not much of a day - a lot of stuff off on the back of the US - S&P at a critical level - if it closes down today I reckon it's a 1050 retest perhaps. Still, the S&P held 1088 last night so at least that says there are bulls around, or at least the bears aren't as bearish as they could be.
Not done much, finished selling my GDWN where I've got bored - want to chase faster stuff.
Thursday 12 August 2010
Wednesday 11 August 2010
Weds Aug 11th - Trading Day
Good Morning.
NTA the star today - up nearly 50% but still looks very cheap based on Lancasters and their share - added more today.
NSR been rising on a stream of 50K trades recently - up on £1 bid rumour today which looks plausible imo
TSW strong, DVO making new highs, RGD bouncing further. Seems all these larger cap stocks on SETs are far more skittish these days than small caps on SEAQ - makes a mockery of the idea that SETs aids liquidity and reduces volatility imo - seems to exacerbate it imo. SETs stocks are daytraded in high volume these days and it makes builders and banks just index proxies most of the time imo
NTA the star today - up nearly 50% but still looks very cheap based on Lancasters and their share - added more today.
NSR been rising on a stream of 50K trades recently - up on £1 bid rumour today which looks plausible imo
TSW strong, DVO making new highs, RGD bouncing further. Seems all these larger cap stocks on SETs are far more skittish these days than small caps on SEAQ - makes a mockery of the idea that SETs aids liquidity and reduces volatility imo - seems to exacerbate it imo. SETs stocks are daytraded in high volume these days and it makes builders and banks just index proxies most of the time imo
Tuesday 10 August 2010
Tues Aug 10th - Trading Day
Good Morning.
PDG Interims rather good imo but debt is increasing - if they do reduce it in H2 then they should rally well. Up today but looks a bit of a sideways job for a while imo.
CIU breaking out on contract news. Bought more this am
NSR up again, looking forward to seeing latest broker forecasts.
DVO looking to make new highs.
IND warn - not impressed by co's that try to warn at 7.30am and hope the market misses it.
PDG Interims rather good imo but debt is increasing - if they do reduce it in H2 then they should rally well. Up today but looks a bit of a sideways job for a while imo.
CIU breaking out on contract news. Bought more this am
NSR up again, looking forward to seeing latest broker forecasts.
DVO looking to make new highs.
IND warn - not impressed by co's that try to warn at 7.30am and hope the market misses it.
Monday 9 August 2010
Monday Aug 9th - Trading Day
PMP - cracking results - earning always weighted heavily to H2 and even more so this year with Spode now in the stable.
Suspect a few traders were expecting to see half the earnings in H1 and traded out :-)
Divi up 10% says enough for me - never reduced their divi since floating. Must beat for the full year by some way in my opinion having done more that half the expected eps gain in H1.
Bought more XPP this am
TNI and HMV going well
All my opinoin, no advice intended or implied.
Suspect a few traders were expecting to see half the earnings in H1 and traded out :-)
Divi up 10% says enough for me - never reduced their divi since floating. Must beat for the full year by some way in my opinion having done more that half the expected eps gain in H1.
Bought more XPP this am
TNI and HMV going well
All my opinoin, no advice intended or implied.
Friday 6 August 2010
Something for the Weekend
A stock I'm holding is Dawson Holdings (DWN)
I expect a trading statement from DWN soon, they are fully listed and have to have in Interim Management Statement - this was released on Aug 14th last year and should be released around the same time this year.
DWN got hammered when Smiths News and Menzies stole nearly all their newspaper distribution business, This nearly finished them. But in May at the Interims they reported:
Revenue of GBP39.4m (2009 GBP44.6m)
Underlying performance:
Adjusted1 profit before tax was GBP0.6m (2009: GBP0.6m)
Adjusted1 basic earnings per share of 0.5p (2009: 0.3p loss)
Statutory results:
Reported profit before tax of GBP0.1m (2009: GBP2.4m loss before tax)
Basic earnings per share of 0.1p (2009 4.6p loss).
Cash generation from continuing operations was GBP1.4m (2009 GBP0.1m
outflow)
Net cash at 31st March 2010 of GBP1.5m (30 September 2009: GBP0.1m)
Dawson now has 3 profitable, cash generative divisions.
Just £3.9m mkt cap. Net cash of £1.5m and adjusted pre tax profits of £600K in H1.
In June the Chairman and the CEO bought 100K and 130K shares each, respectively - doubling their holdings.
The above figures seem to make this company look cheap imo. As always this isn't investment advice, it's just a stock I find interesting with the trading statement due in a weeks time and therefore I hold.
CR
I expect a trading statement from DWN soon, they are fully listed and have to have in Interim Management Statement - this was released on Aug 14th last year and should be released around the same time this year.
DWN got hammered when Smiths News and Menzies stole nearly all their newspaper distribution business, This nearly finished them. But in May at the Interims they reported:
Revenue of GBP39.4m (2009 GBP44.6m)
Underlying performance:
Adjusted1 profit before tax was GBP0.6m (2009: GBP0.6m)
Adjusted1 basic earnings per share of 0.5p (2009: 0.3p loss)
Statutory results:
Reported profit before tax of GBP0.1m (2009: GBP2.4m loss before tax)
Basic earnings per share of 0.1p (2009 4.6p loss).
Cash generation from continuing operations was GBP1.4m (2009 GBP0.1m
outflow)
Net cash at 31st March 2010 of GBP1.5m (30 September 2009: GBP0.1m)
Dawson now has 3 profitable, cash generative divisions.
Just £3.9m mkt cap. Net cash of £1.5m and adjusted pre tax profits of £600K in H1.
In June the Chairman and the CEO bought 100K and 130K shares each, respectively - doubling their holdings.
The above figures seem to make this company look cheap imo. As always this isn't investment advice, it's just a stock I find interesting with the trading statement due in a weeks time and therefore I hold.
CR
Friday Aug 6th Trading day
Wheat seems to be the big talk at the moment - might be a good short term trade - not sure it affects UK co's that bake very much longer term. Like the corn price rises 2 years ago when everyone was supposed to be making ethynol, as soon as these commodity prices rise then farmers move to growing the crops in demand, then the price comes back. Bit like these hurricanes that hit the gulf - sends oil up short term but really it's noise imo. Nice if you're a russian gangster tho - you bet on wheat then set fire to the stuff - simples ;-)
Highlights for me today at lunchtime:
PMP spiked this am - sellers when it hit the recent highs but I think the results next week will take PMP through that level.
NSR continues it's rise from the results - suspect there's a good broker note or two out.
TNI - dips getting bought straight way - 180p broker target - only 115p to buy currently.
LLOY - long today - it's broken out so trading that.
GKN - still pushing at that high - through 153p and that's a right old breakout - worth £2 imo.
DVO sitting on a breakout here, FENR coming to life again.
AND ticking up again - shame I sold half :-(
RDW - story in the Mail yesterday of a 170p+ bid - breaking out here and a bit lively after volume a week ago - I'm watching and ready to buy if it starts to spike up more
That's today for me here so far
Highlights for me today at lunchtime:
PMP spiked this am - sellers when it hit the recent highs but I think the results next week will take PMP through that level.
NSR continues it's rise from the results - suspect there's a good broker note or two out.
TNI - dips getting bought straight way - 180p broker target - only 115p to buy currently.
LLOY - long today - it's broken out so trading that.
GKN - still pushing at that high - through 153p and that's a right old breakout - worth £2 imo.
DVO sitting on a breakout here, FENR coming to life again.
AND ticking up again - shame I sold half :-(
RDW - story in the Mail yesterday of a 170p+ bid - breaking out here and a bit lively after volume a week ago - I'm watching and ready to buy if it starts to spike up more
That's today for me here so far
Wednesday 4 August 2010
Weds August 4th Trading Day
Good results from FOUR today imo
14p eps adjusted in H1 - better than half the years forecast in their weakest half - 10% divi hike paying 6% here. 14p for the year by the look of it :-)
TNI up nice on broker note yesterday with a 180p target
14p eps adjusted in H1 - better than half the years forecast in their weakest half - 10% divi hike paying 6% here. 14p for the year by the look of it :-)
TNI up nice on broker note yesterday with a 180p target
Tuesday 3 August 2010
Daily Page: Tuesday Aug 3rd
Ok, I think the best way to run this blog to and fro will be to have a new page each day. Use that page until I put up a new one. We can chat back and forth on this page and the next day I'll start a new one - or do it the night before - then start using the new one.
Hope that's clear :-)
So here's Tuesday's PGe as a starter :-)
Hope that's clear :-)
So here's Tuesday's PGe as a starter :-)
Portmeirion (PMP)
Right, I’ve mentioned PMP on the thread plenty of times but the blog here seems a rather good place to post a bit of detail where it doesn’t get lost perhaps - so here goes - it’s one I really like for these reasons:
Results on Aug 10th, a week today
Firstly, and recent news to me is that since they floated 17 years ago they have always paid the divi despite the 2000 and 2007 market falls.
This aside tho - the thing that makes me confident is what the co has said
Interims last year produced 3.5p eps on sales of £17m and an interim divi of 3.55p
Full year was 24.7p eps on sales of £43.2m and a final divi of 12.25p making 15.8p for the year.
The acquisition of Spode and Royal Worcester’s designs and I.P. last year has added a lot to sales but only 2 months of Spode was in last year’s interims. This means this years interims will get 4 months of the additional Spode sales.
In the recent results they said that this year, sales are up 40%. Lets say in the last two months of the interims the comparisons get tougher as they had Spode then - lets say total sales for H1 are only up 25%.
That will mean Sales in H1 of £21.25m. If sales never rose at all in H2 then that would be £26.2m in H2 and £47.45m sales for the year. That’s basically what brokers are forecasting for this year, sales of £47.2m !
So even if sales are up 40% so far in H1 and the underlying business without Spode would be growing at about 10% brokers are forecasting far less - the co says Spode only made up half of the sales growth.
On broker forecasts PMP will do 31p eps and pay a 15.8p div this year.
But if you look at the forecasts going forward brokers are only saying £48.7m sales next year and £50m the following year. £50m sales are expected to produce 37p eps in two years time but looking at the sales growth this year I’d have thought £50m sales is easily possible this year.
Perhaps I’m being too optimistic but these forecasts don’t sound like those of a co growing much larger either, but at the interims last year PMP said this:
“"We are pleased with these results. Buying the Spode and Royal Worcester brands
is the most significant event at Portmeirion for many years, giving us the
opportunity to grow to be a significantly larger company. “
Very little debt, a great yield, a very nice chart and one of those boring investments - china pottery - that has little hype in the valuation but lot's of scope for a pleasant surprise in my opinion.
Anyway, on the basis of the above I hold and have held for nearly a year now and I think there’s scope for decent upgrades here.
All just my opinion, not investment advice in any way. Just a stock that I rather like and something I’ve been buying more of lately @ 370p-390p. Pleased to here the opinion of others.
Results on Aug 10th, a week today
Firstly, and recent news to me is that since they floated 17 years ago they have always paid the divi despite the 2000 and 2007 market falls.
This aside tho - the thing that makes me confident is what the co has said
Interims last year produced 3.5p eps on sales of £17m and an interim divi of 3.55p
Full year was 24.7p eps on sales of £43.2m and a final divi of 12.25p making 15.8p for the year.
The acquisition of Spode and Royal Worcester’s designs and I.P. last year has added a lot to sales but only 2 months of Spode was in last year’s interims. This means this years interims will get 4 months of the additional Spode sales.
In the recent results they said that this year, sales are up 40%. Lets say in the last two months of the interims the comparisons get tougher as they had Spode then - lets say total sales for H1 are only up 25%.
That will mean Sales in H1 of £21.25m. If sales never rose at all in H2 then that would be £26.2m in H2 and £47.45m sales for the year. That’s basically what brokers are forecasting for this year, sales of £47.2m !
So even if sales are up 40% so far in H1 and the underlying business without Spode would be growing at about 10% brokers are forecasting far less - the co says Spode only made up half of the sales growth.
On broker forecasts PMP will do 31p eps and pay a 15.8p div this year.
But if you look at the forecasts going forward brokers are only saying £48.7m sales next year and £50m the following year. £50m sales are expected to produce 37p eps in two years time but looking at the sales growth this year I’d have thought £50m sales is easily possible this year.
Perhaps I’m being too optimistic but these forecasts don’t sound like those of a co growing much larger either, but at the interims last year PMP said this:
“"We are pleased with these results. Buying the Spode and Royal Worcester brands
is the most significant event at Portmeirion for many years, giving us the
opportunity to grow to be a significantly larger company. “
Very little debt, a great yield, a very nice chart and one of those boring investments - china pottery - that has little hype in the valuation but lot's of scope for a pleasant surprise in my opinion.
Anyway, on the basis of the above I hold and have held for nearly a year now and I think there’s scope for decent upgrades here.
All just my opinion, not investment advice in any way. Just a stock that I rather like and something I’ve been buying more of lately @ 370p-390p. Pleased to here the opinion of others.
Morning view
Might not have time most mornings to do this but here goes:
GKN looks good to me, 10p eps in H1.
DVO - better than half eps forecast for the year in H1.
ITV - looks better than expected but cautious.
TW. - eps rather than a loss in H1 so looks ahead, sector quite hot this week so probably a trade there.
Twittering through the day today - will have a stock suggestion here later on and the day's round up.
GKN looks good to me, 10p eps in H1.
DVO - better than half eps forecast for the year in H1.
ITV - looks better than expected but cautious.
TW. - eps rather than a loss in H1 so looks ahead, sector quite hot this week so probably a trade there.
Twittering through the day today - will have a stock suggestion here later on and the day's round up.
Monday 2 August 2010
Looking ahead
A few interesting stocks to watch for this week:
GKN tomorrow - Interim results - already said H1 will show £170m+ pbt. That's £100m+ in Q2 and should be way ahead of expectations. I'm bemused as to why these aren't miles higher - will find out some black mark tomorrow that I was unaware of no doubt.
ZTF - results tomorrow - already said they will be ahead - not sure about this co and will probably pass.
DVO - results tomorrow, I expect them to beat, China going well.
WEIR - results tomorrow, class act.
TW. - results tomorrow - charts turning up here - buildres all heading sideways so not enough momentum in the sector for me to chase them I think.
WEDNESDAY:
FOUR - results should be great imo - very cheap, high growth, big yield.
CKSN - results - ought to be doing well if you read across from the similar co's.
GTE AGM - has a crowd following it - not convinced by these.
NXT - the king of clothing retail has a trading statement - I think things way have got a tad quieter for them ( the wife's had plastic surgery - I've cut her credit card up - so that won't help :-)
NXR - my average buy price this am = 10.45p, approx, just for the record.
GKN tomorrow - Interim results - already said H1 will show £170m+ pbt. That's £100m+ in Q2 and should be way ahead of expectations. I'm bemused as to why these aren't miles higher - will find out some black mark tomorrow that I was unaware of no doubt.
ZTF - results tomorrow - already said they will be ahead - not sure about this co and will probably pass.
DVO - results tomorrow, I expect them to beat, China going well.
WEIR - results tomorrow, class act.
TW. - results tomorrow - charts turning up here - buildres all heading sideways so not enough momentum in the sector for me to chase them I think.
WEDNESDAY:
FOUR - results should be great imo - very cheap, high growth, big yield.
CKSN - results - ought to be doing well if you read across from the similar co's.
GTE AGM - has a crowd following it - not convinced by these.
NXT - the king of clothing retail has a trading statement - I think things way have got a tad quieter for them ( the wife's had plastic surgery - I've cut her credit card up - so that won't help :-)
NXR - my average buy price this am = 10.45p, approx, just for the record.
The day's highlights
Extremely good day today - up 4% on the portfolio, 2% on the pensions.
Portmeirion (PMP) was up 32.5p or 8.6%. Results due Aug 10th. With sales up 40% in H1 the total years sales growth is underestimated in broker forecasts imo. As a small amout of sales growth adds far greater in proportion to the bottom line I think the results will be good.
Volex (VLX) rose 9.7% on the back of a good trading statement last week. Have now doubled my money in just over 2 months but these still look cheap imo.
XP Power (XPP) up 89p or 14% - cracking results, profits doubling, divi raised and brokers raising forecasts by 11.5% this year and 15% for next year. Growth still oustripping broker forecasts - think there's more positive earning surprises to come. PE 12 for monster growth and ISA-able.
BBA up 8p (4%) - results his Thursday
TTG up 5% and breaking out - results mid Aug.
FENR up 7.2p good t/s a week or so ago - testing the highs soon.
CIU up 4p
YULC up 3% - results Aug 24th - already said they'll be ahead.
GKN up a tad - results tomorrow - will b surprised if they don't smash forecasts.
ITN up 3.5% - results on Weds
A few other bits up here and there. I sold the few ACE I had today - hit a mental stop I had in place.
Bought NXR - £8m property to sell will leave it debt-free. Looks rather interesting after the last trading statement.
Others of interest - DWN - t/s mid Aug. FCCN hitting 50p on the Ask - a big breakout level and FOUR - results Weds that should be extremely good imo.
Portmeirion (PMP) was up 32.5p or 8.6%. Results due Aug 10th. With sales up 40% in H1 the total years sales growth is underestimated in broker forecasts imo. As a small amout of sales growth adds far greater in proportion to the bottom line I think the results will be good.
Volex (VLX) rose 9.7% on the back of a good trading statement last week. Have now doubled my money in just over 2 months but these still look cheap imo.
XP Power (XPP) up 89p or 14% - cracking results, profits doubling, divi raised and brokers raising forecasts by 11.5% this year and 15% for next year. Growth still oustripping broker forecasts - think there's more positive earning surprises to come. PE 12 for monster growth and ISA-able.
BBA up 8p (4%) - results his Thursday
TTG up 5% and breaking out - results mid Aug.
FENR up 7.2p good t/s a week or so ago - testing the highs soon.
CIU up 4p
YULC up 3% - results Aug 24th - already said they'll be ahead.
GKN up a tad - results tomorrow - will b surprised if they don't smash forecasts.
ITN up 3.5% - results on Weds
A few other bits up here and there. I sold the few ACE I had today - hit a mental stop I had in place.
Bought NXR - £8m property to sell will leave it debt-free. Looks rather interesting after the last trading statement.
Others of interest - DWN - t/s mid Aug. FCCN hitting 50p on the Ask - a big breakout level and FOUR - results Weds that should be extremely good imo.
Todays Highlights
This is the start of my Daily Updated Investment Diary. I plan to update it several times a day when possible, often live as I trade or spot a situation.
For those that do not know of me, I have been investing successfully for a living for 10 years.
This will not be Investment Advice - if you buy or sell shares then the risk is down to you - all shares carry risk. I tend to trade in Small Caps which are often more illiquid than most and while they usually offer greater reward potential they are sometimes not easy to trade in volume which may mean they are not easy to sell just when you'd like. You buy and sell shares at your own risk and on your own decision. This is purely a diary and feedback forum and NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
I may buy a share and hold it for 10 months or 10 minutes. If I'm selling it isn't always possible for me to say so as saying you are selling in an illiquid stock means I might trigger others to sell ahead of me, compromising my position. This would be the same for everyone holding a position in small caps.
I also tweet on http://twitter.com/RebelHQ when I get time.
I'm pleased to share investment ideas and glad to look at interesting UK small to mid caps. I have no interest in oilers and miners really as I just don't understand them - better to stick at what you're good at imo, so asking me to give you my view on oilers and miners will be pretty time wasting imo - sorry :-) Aside from that, anything in the UK on AIM, FTSE Fledging, Small Cap or Mid Cap interests me. Hopefully I can introduce some interesting ideas.
When I buy I'll try to remember to add the price I've paid for future reference.
Hope to chat with new and old friends here
For those that do not know of me, I have been investing successfully for a living for 10 years.
This will not be Investment Advice - if you buy or sell shares then the risk is down to you - all shares carry risk. I tend to trade in Small Caps which are often more illiquid than most and while they usually offer greater reward potential they are sometimes not easy to trade in volume which may mean they are not easy to sell just when you'd like. You buy and sell shares at your own risk and on your own decision. This is purely a diary and feedback forum and NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
I may buy a share and hold it for 10 months or 10 minutes. If I'm selling it isn't always possible for me to say so as saying you are selling in an illiquid stock means I might trigger others to sell ahead of me, compromising my position. This would be the same for everyone holding a position in small caps.
I also tweet on http://twitter.com/RebelHQ when I get time.
I'm pleased to share investment ideas and glad to look at interesting UK small to mid caps. I have no interest in oilers and miners really as I just don't understand them - better to stick at what you're good at imo, so asking me to give you my view on oilers and miners will be pretty time wasting imo - sorry :-) Aside from that, anything in the UK on AIM, FTSE Fledging, Small Cap or Mid Cap interests me. Hopefully I can introduce some interesting ideas.
When I buy I'll try to remember to add the price I've paid for future reference.
Hope to chat with new and old friends here
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